Wednesday, December 08, 2010

A good summary of Monday's Prop 8 hearing here in California

The news cycle is moving on from Monday's Prop 8 hearing at the 9th Circuit Court but along with updates today on Obama's tax cuts "compromise," Elizabeth Edwards' passing and the arrest of the WikiLeaks dude, there was a great summary of the arguments and "therefores" by Ari Ezra Waldman on Towleroad.

Check out the summary here.

And here are the "bottom line" what nexts & therefores:

When will we hear? Not for a while. The average time it takes for an appellate court to issue a decision is about 3 months. The Ninth Circuit is particular back logged, so it may be longer.

What are the possible outcomes? There are many. The court could deny standing. Or, the court could assume standing for the purposes of reaching the merits. If the court denies standing, the prop 8 proponents could give up and that would end the case. But, that is unlikely. They would likely ask for an en banc rehearing (basically, another hearing like we had yesterday, but before about 11 Ninth Circuit judges) and if they lose there, they can appeal to the Supreme Court. If the court assumes standing and decides the merits, that decision is likely to be overturned at the Supreme Court.

Can we marry once the court decides? No. Only if the Prop 8 proponents are denied standing and then give up will marriage equality come back to California quickly. Even after the Ninth Circuit decision, we would likely have to wait a few days for official entry of Judge Walker's order.

Stay Tuned!

1 comment:

IT said...

I've quoted a range of views here.

As Nan Hunter put it,
If I had to bet on the merits, my money would be on a decision affirming the district court that applies only to California, and based on reasoning so limited to California that it would not be binding on any other state, even the other states within the Ninth Circuit. In my opinion, that would be the best possible outcome in this case, since it would make it possible that the Supreme Court would decline to review it at all.

I think that decision, if it happens, is likely to be based on the fact that the only substantive differnce between marriage and Domestic Partnerships is the word "marriage", and California voters chose to take away the word specifically from lesbian and gay people, for no good reason.

That's my bet.